My final predictions for the race

Unusually for an election cycle, the result is so unlikely to be determined this evening that I feel a bit daft making a prediction that could be proven completely wrong without seeing the whole picture. To account for this (and to add some context), I have produced three potential outcomes. The first and last are the ‘outliers’ and represent what would happen, should the polling be out by above 5-6% each way. The middle one is the one I consider most likely and can be considered my ‘prediction’. For each potential outcome, I’ll outline what this could mean for the US, beyond the election of the president. I’ll refer to the Senate and the House (I mentioned these in my US government explainer) and also the states where the state control could change. These might not have the glamour of the presidential election but will have a lasting impact on the political environment. I’ll explain more in future blogs about all of this.

The Biden Landslide

In this scenario (and there have been even more outlandish predictions), Biden would win all of the swing states I mentioned here and here, plus Ohio. This would ensure he has the ‘mandate’ to deliver big change in the US. This would be further strengthened by taking over the Senate and the inevitable holding of the House, enabling him to drive through laws that would reverse many of the changes enacted by Trump. It would also allow him to appoint federal judges and the cabinet of his choosing. In this scenario, Democrats would likely increase their control of state governments to a level not seen since 2010. This could have massive implications for the next decade in the US. Overall, if this scenario were to occur, it is likely that there will be a loud debate as to whether Americans are voting for the Democrats and their left leaning agenda or whether it is a protest against Trump and/or the Republican conservative agenda.

My ‘prediction’ scenario

I’d like to think this map is somewhat conservative. I could easily swap out Florida for one or both of Georgia or North Carolina. Even if Biden loses all three, he will have enough EV to win the election. The margins here are so small. Due to the winner takes all nature of the electoral college, a 0.2% could make the difference between Biden winning all three and moving closely towards the scenario above. My main reason for choosing the scenario above is that it demonstrates the potential for the most messy outcome. This would be a heavy majority in the House, a Biden White House but a Republican Senate. This would lead to Biden having many early fights for his cabinet choices and later fights over legislation and judicial appointments. Overall, I’m being cautious. A 4% election night swing led to a Trump win rather than a Clinton win in 2016. Based on the polls this year (not just lately but for the previous 6 months – also consider Trump’s historical approval ratings, never above 50%) a similar polling error is what separates a Biden win from a Biden landslide (see above). I may well be completely wrong and you’re more than welcome to mock me!

The Trump Win

This scenario would mean a narrow win for Trump. It is possible that he could win more states than in this scenario, however this would require an utterly extraordinary level of polling error (the map above would require a far greater error than 2016). In this scenario, it is highly likely that the Republicans would retain control of the Senate but Democrats would keep control of the House. This could lead to a repeat of the last two years up until the 2022 midterm elections in the House and Senate. The aftershock of this result would move Trump’s 2016 victory from the realm of a shock win by the least popular of the most unpopular candidates in modern history to a proclamation of Trumpism as the dominant political force in the US.

Final thoughts

It’s been a long and brutal campaign (it seems a lifetime since the Democrats were sifting through 29 candidates) after a rollercoaster four years which was preceded by a long and brutal campaign. I hope that these blogs have been a decent companion to your election build up and I’ll follow up with blogs that will discuss the results and unpick other elements of US politics, along with the latest news events.

If you have your own prediction(s) for the election, please feel free to include them in the comments! Add a map for ease, if possible.

Thank you for reading; it’s been a pleasure.