At the time of writing, it appears that the major networks are in the process of projecting/calling the Presidential election in all 50 states. This gives the following result: Click the map to create your own at 270toWin.com This is a bit different from my final prediction. This is something I’ll explore at a later point (I’ll do an initial foray into this during the weekend). Overall, the election has been called. Yes, President Trump has refused to concede and has filed multiple lawsuits to challenge the validity of the election. Some of these have alreadyContinue reading “It’s all called!”

As you’ll have heard, all the major networks (plus AP) have called the race for Biden. There are still some states that have yet to be projected but the overall decision is unanimous. Although it was always unlikely to be called on Election Night, it has been a long wait for US voters and the world. If you’re anything like me, you’ll still see 253-213 even when your eyes are closed! As we move beyond the election itself (and tonight’s speeches), there will be lots of other news that will move to the front of theContinue reading “Finally!”

Unusually for an election cycle, the result is so unlikely to be determined this evening that I feel a bit daft making a prediction that could be proven completely wrong without seeing the whole picture. To account for this (and to add some context), I have produced three potential outcomes. The first and last are the ‘outliers’ and represent what would happen, should the polling be out by above 5-6% each way. The middle one is the one I consider most likely and can be considered my ‘prediction’. For each potential outcome, I’ll outline what thisContinue reading “My final predictions for the race”

This will be quite a brief post ahead of my final prediction for the election. The below is a short list of things to expect tomorrow night. This election is unlike any that has been seen before. You’ll most likely have seen/heard that the turnout is already colossal. This is due to early voting – either by mail or in person. The stats surrounding this currently suggest that the majority of these early votes have been cast by Democrats. This has been true for most elections in the past two decades but has been further exacerbatedContinue reading “What to expect on election night”

In this blog, I’ll be exploring the states which are currently on a knife edge (based on recent polling). The results in these states will ultimately determine the impression of the election. If Trump wins the states, he will likely be within a polling error (or closer) of victory in the states I mentioned yesterday. If Biden wins these states then he is on course to have an overwhelming victory (with over 300 EV in the electoral college). As with yesterday, the summary of these states will be (hopefully) include enough information to give some ideaContinue reading “Swing States – Part 2”