This will be quite a brief post ahead of my final prediction for the election. The below is a short list of things to expect tomorrow night. This election is unlike any that has been seen before. You’ll most likely have seen/heard that the turnout is already colossal. This is due to early voting – either by mail or in person. The stats surrounding this currently suggest that the majority of these early votes have been cast by Democrats. This has been true for most elections in the past two decades but has been further exacerbated this year. This complicates the results greatly. Mail in votes take a long time to certify (with signatures etc) and then count compared to in person ballots. There is also the question of differences between states – for example, some states require the ballot to arrive by election day (like Georgia) and others require that it be posted by election day (like North Carolina). There are also differing rules on when the counting of these ballots can begin.
This makes it extremely unlikely that all states will have ‘projected’ winners on Tuesday night/Wednesday morning (they are projections as many states take a number of days to finalize the count, even in normal elections). In fact, it is looking increasingly unlikely that either candidate will have accrued enough projected EVs on election night. So if you’re planning on waking up really early or staying up really late, just bear this in mind and don’t be too disappointed if you end up going to work or bed without a definitive result.
Another point to note that is different to the UK general election – the exit polls are often poor, especially the ones released early in the evening. These are likely to be even less accurate this year. In short, if you’re watching the election on a US network, take these with a pinch of salt.
The penultimate thing to consider is what the vote totals might look like by Wednesday lunchtime (GMT). It is expected that a lot of in person voting on the day will be Republican voters and it is likely that these will be counted much more quickly. That will then be countered by the counting and totalling of Democrat skewed mail in votes. This could lead to some states shifting slowly towards Biden over the course of the day.
Finally, be prepared for a lot of squabbling and arguing for the remainder of the week. Trump has certainly shifted the tone of political discourse in the US and has already claimed that the mail in ballots are open to fraud. There will likely be legal challenges against mail in votes (one has just been decided in Texas over 127,000 ballots) along with other potential issues such as Trump ‘declaring’ victory and cases brought to court based on polling stations. Both parties are prepared to take this election all the way to the Supreme Court, something seen in 2000.
Overall, expect to be bombarded with a lot of information, opinion and analysis tomorrow. Definitely lower any expectations of having a result.
If you have any final questions, please pop them in the comments and I’ll try to address them before tomorrow’s early night!
Washington GB 