In this blog, I’ll be exploring the states which are currently on a knife edge (based on recent polling). The results in these states will ultimately determine the impression of the election. If Trump wins the states, he will likely be within a polling error (or closer) of victory in the states I mentioned yesterday. If Biden wins these states then he is on course to have an overwhelming victory (with over 300 EV in the electoral college).
As with yesterday, the summary of these states will be (hopefully) include enough information to give some idea as to why the state falls for Biden or Trump.
Florida (29 EV)
Florida has been a swing state for my entire adult life. From the hanging chad debacle (and the How I Met Your Mother recurring joke) and its elevation of Jeb Bush to national politics, to the jokes about the ‘pan handle’ (Google it on a map) of older voters: this state is often seen as the last ‘big’ (EV wise) swing state. In all reality, I tend to view this as a Republican state, having regularly elected Republican governors and senators. In terms of presidential elections, the republican has won 8 out of the last 12 elections and 3 of the last 5. This year, the polling average suggests that Biden may win Florida, although this is currently in the margin of error. Some of the reasons for this are the current COVID situation, the Puerto Rican (see the hurricane response) population and the same suburban shift (mainly women who are less than enamoured with Trump and his past behaviour and rhetoric). Whatever happens, it is likely to be a tight race (the most recent 5 presidential elections have been within 5%). If Trump wins the state, he could be surfing the wave of a national polling error to a second term. If Biden wins Florida, Trump will have very few paths to victory (many of which require him to win all of the states discussed the other day).
Georgia (16 EV)
Georgia is usually seen as a solid Republican state (often referred to a deep or ruby red state). Other than Bill Clinton in 1992 and Jimmy Carter in 1976 and 1980 (Carter was the Georgia governor prior to 1976), the state has been a solid Republican bastion since 1964. The big change in this state is the increase in African-American voter turnout combined with the national change in voter preference amongst suburban voters (especially suburban women). In the past 40 years, suburbia has generally voted Republican for a number of reasons, not limited to: Christian beliefs, tax cuts and incentives, ‘law and order’ and a restoration of ‘American values’. In short this can be seen as ‘social conservatism’. Based on polling numbers and focus groups, social conservatism isn’t enough to overcome distaste at Trump’s behaviour, rhetoric, attitudes and legislative action. These effects have built over time and have been catalysed by the COVID response and the reaction to the many controversies of the Trump presidency. Again, I’d point you towards ‘The Trump Show‘ on iPlayer for a rundown of these.
Arizona (11 EV)
Arizona is similar to Georgia but more Republican. Since 1952, the state has only voted for a Democratic presidential candidate once. In recent years the late senior senator and presidential candidate, John McCain has voted against Trump policies. There have been statewide elections where Democrats have won and there is, currently a tight senate election involving Mark Kelly (an astronaut who is married to former Representative Gabby Giffords – who famously survived being shot in the head) and Martha McSally (who lost her previous senate race). The increase in Hispanic voters has been very significant and acts as a potential indicator for other states (including Texas) where the demographics of the states are shifting quickly. This is most obvious in cities such as Phoenix, which are more diverse and, as such, tend to vote for Democratic candidates,
North Carolina (15 EV)
North Carolina has been a reliably Republican voting state, for the most part. Unlike Georgia and Arizona, it has (generally) led to quite close elections. If this state is to swing towards Biden, it will be due to increased turnout amongst minority voters (which itself is dependent on how many of the mail in votes are certified) and what proportion of highly educated white voters shift to the Democrats. Like Arizona and Georgia, there are tight senate races here, too.
Washington GB 