Trump won’t win again, will he? Part 2

Last time, I outlined some of the key issues from 2016 that could have an impact on 2020. In today’s post, I’ll dig into the final few bits of 2016 and look ahead to next Tuesday.

The ‘Trump Base’

The group of voters who stand by Trump through thick and thin can be described as his ‘base’. This bloc of core support is estimated to comprise 40-42% of the electorate, based on the approval ratings of the president throughout his term to date. It is easy to generalize the voters who make up this group – and this stereotyping is regularly made on social media. In reality it consists of ‘white, working class voters’ (I’ll discuss this more below), ‘nose holding, middle class, evangelical, suburban voters’ (Trump promised and delivered the nomination of socially conservative judges) and ‘dyed in the wool conservative, Republican voters’.

The motivations of these voters are incredibly broad: some are motivated by Trump’s rhetoric and ‘norm breaking’, others purely by his promised judicial nominees and just about everything in between. In some states, this coalition of voters is more than sufficient to ensure Trump victory (Louisiana is deeply Republican, for example). In the 2020 environment, with a more popular opponent, a global pandemic and the weight of incumbency, Trump has to secure voters outside of his base. I’ll discuss the success of these efforts later in the week.

The ‘Silent Majority’

The term ‘silent majority’ in modern politics is generally attributed to Nixon. It is often used alongside the phrase ‘shy Trump voter’. The first term is used to describe voters whose interests are not represented by politicians and hence have no voice (cf the Brexit referendum) and the second is used to describe those who do not share their political views with pollsters as they could be considered unpalatable. In the context of 2016 (and, indeed 2020) these terms generally refer to white, working class voters without a degree.

In 2016 this was a group that felt both ‘left behind’ and ‘left out’ by the major political parties, especially the Democratic party. ‘Left behind’ refers to the touted success of the Obama administration in recovery from the Great Recession – a recovery that they did not experience due to the evaporation of manufacturing jobs (keenly felt in the rust belt). There is and was great resentment that a recovery was celebrated whilst many of the jobs lost had moved overseas, often by the employers of those who now could not find work. ‘Left out’ refers to the voters who did not feel they were represented by the ‘identity politics’ of the Democratic party. Identity politics is the strategy of explicitly targeting groups within society based on ethnicity, sexuality, gender, religion etc. This became a major focus for the Clinton campaign in 2016. This, in addition to the ‘left behind’ element, led to increased resentment from white, working class voters. For many of these voters, the Democratic candidate was touting a recovery that they had not felt and arguing for the rights of groups that they were not a part of. This was key in states where these voters made up a significant proportion of the electorate, such as the rust belt.

Other key factors

In addition to this, the 2016 election occurred at a peak of ‘anti-expertise’ and ‘anti-science’ sentiment. This was particularly damaging to a political ‘wonk’ like Clinton. To many (including her supporters) she appeared to be the paradigm of a seasoned operative who was an iteration of the status quo. Regardless of any sleaze and scandal, it is tough (in the modern era) for a politician to present an argument for their election after an 8 year presidency from the same party. This was compounded by the 8 year presidency of Clinton’s husband from 1993-2001.

Gender has been shown to have been an issue in 2016. In 2020 this isn’t an issue; Biden is a white, heterosexual, catholic man. Neither is the Clinton name (especially the controversy) an issue, although she is still mentioned in most Trump rallies. Regarding 2020, Biden is closely linked to Obama (he served as his vice president), so this could be an issue. Indeed, it has been highlighted multiple times in the campaign so far. With Biden as the Democratic candidate, many of the Clinton specific issues are mitigated.

What’s happened since 2016?

I won’t get caught in the weeds regarding the many controversies and new events that have occurred in the past four years. A great deal of these are already viewed in very partisan terms by Trump and Biden supporters. I’ll discuss some of the key issues when looking at some key states later in the week. If you have the time before 3rd November, I recommend The Trump Show on BBC iPlayer – it’s a three part documentary that covers the main events of Trump’s term. As a side note (for those of you who are a little more steeped in US political news) one of the people interviewed is Miles Taylor, the author of the Anonymous op-ed featured in the New York Times.